Dr. Chaim Botwinick
Much has been written about the future of the American Jewish community. From historians, scholars and demographers to well respected Rabbinic leaders, they all pose one of the most perplexing questions of our time – what will our American Jewish community look like in the future?
This fascinating obsession with our community’s future is anchored in our rich background, DNA and history which focuses upon our past and present as a strong predictor or indicator for our future.
As Jews, we dream and pray for a future that will be blessed with the coming of the geula as well as with the hope and promise that the phrase B’shana HaBa B’Yerushalayim (“Next Year in Jerusalem,”) becomes a reality. This is not a hypothetical reality, but an aspiration which we truly and sincerely believe will come to fruition in our lifetime.
So, in light of what we now know and experience as American Jews, what does our future hold for us?
First, it is essential that we accept the notion that it is virtually impossible to predict the future. Having said that, there are communal and societal trends and realities which can in part inform our future.
Several of these characteristic include demography, religious practice, migration, anti-semitism, Jewish education, the impact of technology and our relationship to Israel, to name a few.
Although one can write volumes regarding each of these characteristics, I will attempt to highlight how and why several of these may affect and inform our community’s future. Remember, if our past experience or history has in any way informed where we are today, than it is highly probable that today’s trends will also affect, inform and shape our future.
According to the Jewish Federations of North America (JFNA), the American Jewish community is at a ‘complex inflection point, marked by a paradox of vulnerability and deep resilience.’
In their recent Study they report that while major structural demographic and political changes loom, an unprecedented wave of communal reawakening is simultaneously reshaping Jewish life.
This powerful statement should not be taken lightly. It requires significant review, examination, exploration and analysis
Education, Jewish Identity and Engagement
For the first time in decades, this past academic year, we witnessed an across-the-board increase in Jewish day school pupil enrollment.
This finding suggests that Jewish day school enrollment is no longer an exclusively Orthodox phenomenon, (at least for the time being), but rather one which is now impacting other Jewish ideological or denominational movements.
Whether this trend continues into the future, remains to be seen. But it is important to note that these pupil enrollment increases, (according to the recent Study), are the result of a poor, failed and mediocre public education system as well as a significant increase in anti-Semitism.
Parenthetically, if these phenomena are indeed the factors which are driving pupil increases in non-Orthodox day schools, than I sincerely believe that the prognosis for the future will continue to include these same factors. Nevertheless, increases in pupil enrollment have and will continue to be primarily an Orthodox phenomenon. In fact, with the impressive meteoric growth of our community’s birthrate in the Orthodox community in the United States, it is almost certain that the majority of day school enrollment increases will continue to be found in our Orthodox day schools and yeshivot and will continue to increase in that community for the foreseeable future.
In addition to their higher birth rate, we are also seeing that younger Orthodox couples are marrying at an earlier age. Suggest that over the next few decades, the proportion of American Jews identifying as Orthodox will more than double, and non-affiliation and assimilation will increase in many segments of our community. This will according to many sociologists and demographers eventually change our community’s theological and political landscape and center of gravity.
This demographic reality also suggests several major challenges for our future, (in the Orthodox community). They include, affordability, the cost of tuition, education, Jewish living, and housing, special social services and programs geared toward the Orthodox community as well as a variety of other specific Orthodox needs and exigencies.
At the risk of sounding arrogant, unless there are dramatic changes or shifts in our demographic landscape, this is no longer a prediction, but rather a demographic and societal reality and eventuality.
Finally, in addition to formal Jewish education, we are currently experiencing a resurgence in spirituality, informal Jewish education, experiential programming and a yearning to rediscover our Jewish roots through new and exciting learning venues, Jewish practice and Torah study opportunities. Not necessarily affiliation with institutions, but rather with the very population which comprise these institutions.
This phenomenon, especially since October 7th, may be due in part to increased levels of ethnocentricity and Jewish identity which forces us to look more inwardly at our religious and spiritual relevance and raison d’etre
Our Relationship to Israel
The other critically important phenomenon we will face in the future is what is referred to as “The Israel Divide.”
Unfortunately the relationship between American Jews and Israel is increasingly polarized. While older and more traditional segments maintain staunch, fundamental support, a visible portion of younger progressive Jews express deep friction with Israeli government policies, leading to fierce internal communal debates.
This most unfortunate reality will demand that our community revisit its hasbarah in support of Israel. It also suggests that we will need to redouble, if not triple our efforts to provide our youth with a more comprehensive foundation regarding the centrality and the history of Israel and its relevance to our lives. This will demand a significant challenge on the part of our educational community working in tandem with Israel-based institutions.
Unfortunately, the majority of today’s youth and their families (except in the Orthodox community) no longer have the same love, passion or affinity for Israel as we did in the past, nor do they support Israel unconditionally in the same manner I, my family and colleagues did when we were in college. We are no longer a first generation of immigrant chalutzim eager to support Israel at all costs. But rather one which has been influenced by competing interests and demands including an increase thirst for materialism and a standard of comfortable living including American acculturation.
This shift in attitudes may be attributed to a new reality which currently views Israel as a modern, progressive and technologically advanced country that has the resources and brain power to compete and succeed in today’s global market. Israel is no longer viewed as a poor country of post holocaust immigrant chalutzim who view the country as the only island of safety, security and refuge for Jews. Except for Israel’s historical and biblical significance it is now viewed as just another country to tour, visit and enjoy, not unlike other countries.
This new reality and shift in attitudes towards Israel by a younger generation of Jewish Americans, is unfortunate and is vividly seen through the post October 7th anti-Israel violent demonstrations on college campuses and a general waning of support for Israel during and immediately following the war with Iran.
The number of young Jews who protest against Israel as a colonizing occupier and oppressor of the oppressed is a fabricated sociological and political left leaning phenomenon which is beyond devastating and shocking to many of us in the Jewish community. It also represents a very false narrative.
We all hope and pray that this phenomenon diminishes over a period of time and into the future.
Nevertheless, for many of us living in the modern Orthodox diaspora community, Aliya to Israel may be one of the best and most viable solutions for American Jews.
Anti-Semitism, Jew Hatred and Anti-Zionism
The next challenge relates to the increased level of Jew-hatred, anti-Israel and anti-Semitism in the United States and its negative impact and effect on our future.
Today, we are witnessing a level of anti-Semitism and Jew-hatred unsurpassed since WWII. This frightening phenomenon, especially post October 7th, is a reality which is frightening, harsh and at times overwhelming.
Although it is difficult to predict how today’s events and trends will affect our future, one reality is certain. Unless there is a seismic change or shift in the social and political landscape of American society and its views towards Israel, the increased level of anti-Semitism will once again eventually energize and inspire more American Jewish families to seriously consider aliyah to Israel as a viable option. For others, it may just force or encourage them to suppress their Jewish identity in public spaces or at best, confront and battle against evil.
Either way, it is an eventuality which must be addressed front and center and with all of our resources.
This demographic shift can also dramatically transform the face of American Jewry, not unlike the manner in which the Holocaust changed the trajectory and migration of Eastern European Jewry to the West and to Israel. But remember, for the overwhelming majority of today’s young American Jews, firsthand knowledge or experience of the holocaust is virtually nonexistent.
This challenge implores us to expose our youth to the history of anti-Semitism and the Holocaust, not as talking-points or as a dark chapter in a history book, but rather as a reality which has shaped and reshaped a generation of Jews in imaginable ways.
The Search for Jewish Unity (Achdut)
As we approach Tisha B’av, we are reminded of the sinat chinam which led to the destruction of the second Bais MaMikdash. This event, was one of the most devastating occurrences in our history.
Not only does it remind us of what can happen to our community when we lack achdut but also its long-term negative impact on our community.
Much has been written about the critical importance of achdut in our community. But unfortunately, we all write and talk a good game with very little being translated into true change, improvement or a shift in our attitudes and behavior.
Except during times of crisis, our Jewish community in America and in Israel, is deeply divided along ideological and denominational ines.
Not only do we see a deep divide between our Orthodox community and the unaffiliated Jewish population, but a level of deep and profound level of hatred which is spilling over into the streets of Yerushalayim and Tel Aviv on a daily basis.
If we think these events are specific only to Israel, we must think again. Every time there is a massive violent demonstration in the streets of Israel, its impacts our American Jewish communities in ways which are unimaginable. This is a harsh reality.
Whether we see demonstrations against the military draft of Hareidim, the withholding of governmental funding to yeshivot, or a debate about an appropriate location for egalitarian prayer at the holy Kotel, we are all affected by the violence and harsh rhetoric espoused by Israeli politicians from the Knesset podium.
These occurrences are exacerbated when we see on American cable and network news how thousands of Hareidim in Israel are being brutally clubbed and water-cannoned in the streets and alleyways by Israeli police in order to bring peace and quiet to neighborhoods.
If we think for one moment that these demonstrations do not negatively impact our American community, we must think again. To be sure, our antagonists, and enemies welcome these images which gives fuel to the fire of Jew hatred and anti-Israel feelings. It is also used to sadly justify a perception that Jews do not have their act other.
Friends, although these are isolated events, they do have a very negative cumulative effect on our American Jewish community. We must therefore do everything in our power in the States and in Israel to bring about communal shalom bayit and true achdut. The alternative is not an acceptable option.
Moving Forward…..
Judaism in America may never disappear. It may change, shift and transform itself, but it will always where possible, continue to remain a forceful source of Jewish and religious unity, identity and pride.
As the American Jewish community continues to evolve, it will be faced with a variety of unknown realities. Some positive; and some less positive.
Irrespective of the challenges or opportunities we currently face, the American Jewish community will continue to be in a growth, or survival mode not unlike our past history.
Wars, persecution and assimilation will continue to be met with stiff resistance and a communal attitude anchored in our deep and profound bitachon and emuna in HaShem.
Our battle for resilience and survival throughout our history was always a significant challenge since time immemorial. It has always kept us viable and steadfast. To be sure, reality dictates that our ability to survive adversity is historic and with HaShem’s oversight will continue into the future.
Finally, irrespective of increases in Aliyah to Israel, we will always occupy and maintain a strong American presence and footprint that for centuries has advanced America’s society through technology, education, science, business, commerce and government.
As indicated earlier, there is no way to predict our future. But we can at best hope and dream what that future may look like.
I am an optimistic realist and therefore choose a glass that is half-full. By doing so, we can paint a future portrait of hope, promise, positivity and growth.
The great Kotzker Rebbe is quoted as saying that positive thinking must replace negativity. This is a philosophy and a mode of thinking shared by the Lubavitcher Rebbe who is also quoted as saying…. if you think positive, it will be positive — a philosophy that serves us well as we navigate islands of safety in a swirling rough sea of uncertainty.
As the American Jewish community moves into the future, it remains to be seen whether the glass will remain half-full or half empty. Indeed a very mixed bag.
Nevertheless, we will always have very serious concerns about the future of our Jewish community.
Yes, we are resilient; and yes we show signs of religious, spiritual growth, steadfastness and vitality. That is the half-full glass. But we are also facing an existential threat like a metastasizing cancer of Jew hatred, anti-Semitism, and assimilation in addition to hatred towards Israel – representing the half empty glass.
At the end of the day, as we look towards the future of the American Jewish community, we must focus our thoughts and energies on those realities and eventualities which are half-full as opposed to those that are half-empty.
By doing so, we also guarantee a future of bracha, hatzlacha, success and promise.
On this 250th Anniversary of the founding of America, may HaShem continue to bless us with bracha and may He continue to look over the future wellbeing our community?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. Chaim Botwinick is a senior executive coach and an organizational consultant . He served as president and CEO of the central agency for Jewish education in Baltimore and in Miami; in addition to head of school and principal for several Jewish day schools and yeshivot. As an Influencer in education, he has published and lectured extensively on topics relating to education, resource development, strategic planning and leadership development. Dr. Botwinick is co-founder of LEV Consulting Associates and producer of the Chinuch Horizons podcast series. He is the author of “Think Excellence: Harnessing Your Power to Succeed Beyond Greatness”, Brown Books, 2011
